Rapid Intensification Guidance WP202022 221003 00UTC Storm Located at : 36.80 158.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.40 F TC SIZE [%] 112.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 52.6 33.8 29.5 24.1 25.7 35.0 33.9 27.0 VU U N N N U U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 45.9 45.9 43.8 43.8 40.7 19.6 0.6 -5.8 U U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 17.0 11.0 7.0 -34.0 -13.0 -22.0 17.0 53.0 U U U VU U VU U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 41.0 40.0 46.0 43.0 42.0 53.0 63.0 61.0 VU VU VU VU VU U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 6.0 26.0 38.0 24.0 -26.0-122.0 N N N VU VU VU VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.22 WP202022 221003 00UTC Storm Located at : 36.80 158.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.