Rapid Intensification Guidance WP202022 221003 06UTC Storm Located at : 36.90 159.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.70 F TC SIZE [%] 121.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.9 26.0 24.0 19.7 33.7 35.6 30.4 36.6 U N N N U U N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 58.2 57.0 53.8 51.7 34.7 14.6 3.9 1.2 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 15.0 -21.0 -34.0 -40.0 -59.0 -24.0 40.0 21.0 U VU VU VU VU VU N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 49.0 48.0 49.0 48.0 57.0 64.0 52.0 VU U U U U U N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 4.0 21.0 31.0 47.0 2.0 -58.0-119.0 N N VU VU VU N VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.30 WP202022 221003 06UTC Storm Located at : 36.90 159.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.