Rapid Intensification Guidance WP202022 221005 00UTC Storm Located at : 39.90 163.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.10 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.9 35.0 33.8 30.7 15.8 15.8 15.8 15.8 U U U U F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 35.7 26.6 20.3 17.3 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.7 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -47.0 -8.0 39.0 49.0 -7.0 -7.0 -7.0 -7.0 VU U N N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 53.0 58.0 60.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 U U U N U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 4.0 27.0 6.0 -29.0 -29.0 -29.0 -29.0 N N VU N VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 18.28 WP202022 221005 00UTC Storm Located at : 39.90 163.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.