Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP212022 221012 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    151.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.0  32.6  30.5  25.5  28.1  20.4  21.3  28.6  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  113.0 114.0 111.0 106.0  53.0  36.0  22.0  10.0  F  F  F  F  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 134.6 119.4 111.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    79.0  51.0  43.0  94.0  85.0  76.0  27.0  57.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  73.0  77.0  78.0  73.0  61.0  51.0  53.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   8.0  13.0  11.0 -10.0  -9.0   1.0   2.0  N  U  U  U  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        1.1%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        7.8%       16.5%       12.1%
 30kt / 24h        2.9%        5.1%        4.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        4.0%        2.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        4.0%        2.4%
 45kt / 36h        7.7%       26.0%       16.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.6%        3.8%
 55kt / 48h       20.4%       12.1%       16.2%
 70kt / 48h       14.4%        9.3%       11.8%
 65kt / 72h       36.8%       22.3%       29.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.54

 WP212022 221012 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    151.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.0  32.6  30.5  25.5  28.1  20.4  21.3  28.6  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  73.0  77.0  78.0  73.0  61.0  51.0  53.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   8.0  13.0  11.0 -10.0  -9.0   1.0   2.0  N  F  F  F  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%