Rapid Intensification Guidance WP212022 221014 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.50 156.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 56.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 48.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.20 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.7 19.2 21.8 19.4 13.6 13.4 27.5 35.1 F N N N F F N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 66.0 47.0 39.0 37.0 32.0 33.0 38.0 36.0 N N U U U U U U Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 129.3 127.0 124.6 124.6 127.0 122.3 F F F N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 62.0 72.0 61.0 70.0 54.0 29.0 15.0 25.0 N N N N N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 74.0 71.0 66.0 57.0 56.0 53.0 50.0 N N N N U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 13.0 10.0 4.0 -8.0 10.0 6.0 0.0 -13.0 U U N F U N N VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 4.4% 7.9% 6.2% 25kt / 24h 23.1% 45.9% 34.5% 30kt / 24h 11.2% 26.5% 18.9% 35kt / 24h 5.6% 25.5% 15.5% 40kt / 24h 2.5% 25.5% 14.0% 45kt / 36h 21.5% 54.6% 38.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 31.0% 15.5% 55kt / 48h 35.2% 36.7% 35.9% 70kt / 48h 21.4% 26.1% 23.7% 65kt / 72h 30.9% 29.0% 30.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.66 WP212022 221014 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.50 156.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.7 19.2 21.8 19.4 13.6 13.4 27.5 35.1 N N N N U U N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 74.0 71.0 66.0 57.0 56.0 53.0 50.0 N N N N F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 13.0 10.0 4.0 -8.0 10.0 6.0 0.0 -13.0 F F N U F N N VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%