Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP212022 221014 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.10    156.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  19.8  16.9  18.3  23.5  52.5  65.1  85.2  N  N  F  F  N VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  33.0  30.0  16.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 120.1 117.9  99.8  83.0  80.0  71.7  45.8  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    65.0  61.0  73.0  70.0  35.0  16.0   5.0  36.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  74.0  71.0  63.0  60.0  62.0  57.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0   5.0  -1.0   2.0 -13.0 -67.0 -88.0-171.0  U  N  N  N VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        2.6%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h        6.1%       16.4%       11.2%
 30kt / 24h        3.0%        6.6%        4.8%
 35kt / 24h        2.1%        6.1%        4.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        6.1%        3.2%
 45kt / 36h        2.1%       13.3%        7.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.3%        2.2%
 55kt / 48h        1.4%        1.4%        1.4%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        1.5%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.10

 WP212022 221014 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.10    156.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  19.8  16.9  18.3  23.5  52.5  65.1  85.2  N  N  N  N  N VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  74.0  71.0  63.0  60.0  62.0  57.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0   5.0  -1.0   2.0 -13.0 -67.0 -88.0-171.0  F  N  N  N VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%