Rapid Intensification Guidance WP212022 221014 18UTC Storm Located at : 26.70 158.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 39.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 23.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.30 F TC SIZE [%] 132.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.2 23.8 41.0 60.3 82.6 95.0 99.3 99.3 N N VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 22.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 94.8 79.6 76.5 75.0 59.3 33.4 15.3 15.3 N N U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 98.0 74.0 93.0 72.0 58.0 65.0 112.0 112.0 F N F N N N F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 70.0 66.0 62.0 63.0 70.0 76.0 72.0 72.0 N N N N N F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -32.0 -33.0 -47.0 -66.0 -9.0 104.0 104.0 N VF VF VF VF F VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.52 WP212022 221014 18UTC Storm Located at : 26.70 158.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.