Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP212022 221015 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.70    160.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    154.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.0  51.8  61.1  67.5  73.4  84.9  82.1  75.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         82.2  82.2  78.0  69.3  46.9  25.6  17.5  14.4  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   120.0 101.0  71.0  51.0  30.0  20.0  58.0  39.0  F  F  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  62.0  64.0  67.0  71.0  76.0  75.0  69.0  U  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   1.0 -61.0 -41.0-196.0-256.0  33.0 165.0  U  N VF VF VF VF VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.36

 WP212022 221015 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.70    160.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.