Rapid Intensification Guidance WP212022 221015 18UTC Storm Located at : 36.10 167.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 70.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 18.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 158.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 66.7 69.6 77.8 85.0 106.9 97.2 72.4 72.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 74.2 63.8 56.8 50.0 35.1 25.0 28.1 28.1 U U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 75.0 53.0 48.0 14.0 35.0 30.0 39.0 39.0 N N N U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 67.0 64.0 61.0 52.0 48.0 54.0 54.0 N N N N U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s]-142.0-181.0-181.0-224.0-361.0-258.0-126.0-126.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.14 WP212022 221015 18UTC Storm Located at : 36.10 167.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.