Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222022 221014 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30    112.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.3  30.0  33.6  37.2  45.3  35.7  35.6  30.6  U  N  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  28.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  13.0  25.0  38.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        137.0 132.3  75.5  51.2 108.0 101.0  97.7 108.0  F  F  U  U  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  -4.0  19.0  10.0 -17.0 -25.0  -5.0   6.0  N  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  79.0  75.0  74.0  69.0  70.0  71.0  70.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0  11.0  12.0  19.0   1.0  -4.0  -8.0  -7.0  U  U  U VU  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.34

 WP222022 221014 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30    112.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.