Rapid Intensification Guidance WP222022 221014 12UTC Storm Located at : 14.60 110.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 11.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 9.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.10 F TC SIZE [%] 112.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.2 27.2 35.1 36.5 31.4 32.4 27.4 27.3 N N U U U U N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 31.0 63.0 U U U U U U U N Potential [kt] 73.0 30.7 45.0 54.7 53.7 77.2 91.0 130.0 U VU U U U U N F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 29.0 2.0 -13.0 -38.0 -30.0 23.0 43.0 37.0 N U U VU VU U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 76.0 76.0 74.0 77.0 77.0 77.0 78.0 F F F N F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 8.0 13.0 8.0 0.0 -3.0 -7.0 -3.0 0.0 U U U N N F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.08 WP222022 221014 12UTC Storm Located at : 14.60 110.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.