Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222022 221014 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30    108.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.7  31.5  29.0  25.3  21.5  21.5  21.5  21.5  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         35.8  35.2  45.8  56.7  84.6  84.6  84.6  84.6  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  -8.0 -32.0 -33.0 -26.0 -26.0 -26.0 -26.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  73.0  72.0  73.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  F  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.0  38.0  29.0  18.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  U VU VU VU  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 22.84

 WP222022 221014 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30    108.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.