Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222022 221015 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70    107.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.2  34.4  34.9  31.7  28.7  27.9  19.9  30.2  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0  18.0  33.0  37.0  32.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         52.6  67.7  76.7  96.1 111.6 121.5 130.1 113.5  U  U  U  N  N  N  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -7.0 -42.0 -33.0 -44.0  25.0  30.0  27.0  34.0  U VU VU VU  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  72.0  73.0  76.0  78.0  78.0  76.0  73.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   1.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0   0.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 23.60

 WP222022 221015 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70    107.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.