Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232022 221015 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.90    126.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.0  20.7  21.7  25.6  26.5  28.9  35.6  39.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   87.0  94.0  90.0  78.0  48.0  58.0  59.0  54.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 117.4 134.6 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  15.0  14.0  20.0  -4.0   2.0  21.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  70.0  68.0  68.0  70.0  62.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -5.0  -6.0 -11.0 -20.0 -26.0  N  N  N  F  F  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        2.0%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        4.6%       18.4%       11.5%
 30kt / 24h        2.1%        7.4%        4.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        5.9%        3.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        5.9%        3.0%
 45kt / 36h        3.4%       20.0%       11.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.5%        3.2%
 55kt / 48h        9.2%        6.5%        7.8%
 70kt / 48h        6.6%        5.4%        6.0%
 65kt / 72h       16.4%       15.1%       15.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.08

 WP232022 221015 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.90    126.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.0  20.7  21.7  25.6  26.5  28.9  35.6  39.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  70.0  68.0  68.0  70.0  62.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -5.0  -6.0 -11.0 -20.0 -26.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%