Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232022 221015 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.70    124.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.8  23.0  24.6  24.0  23.9  28.0  35.9  39.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   87.0  76.0  50.0  37.0  58.0  59.0  52.0  40.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 112.4  91.1 134.3 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  N  N  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0  10.0  27.0  27.0  -2.0  23.0  -1.0  28.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  65.0  67.0  71.0  73.0  76.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -6.0 -15.0 -24.0 -26.0  N  N  N  N  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.2%        3.8%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h        3.7%       12.8%        8.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%        5.2%        3.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.5%        4.2%        2.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        4.2%        2.1%
 45kt / 36h        2.5%       18.6%       10.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.9%        3.5%
 55kt / 48h        7.9%        5.5%        6.7%
 70kt / 48h        5.5%        6.2%        5.9%
 65kt / 72h        5.6%       13.0%        9.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.12

 WP232022 221015 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.70    124.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.8  23.0  24.6  24.0  23.9  28.0  35.9  39.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  65.0  67.0  71.0  73.0  76.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -6.0 -15.0 -24.0 -26.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%