Rapid Intensification Guidance WP232022 221015 12UTC Storm Located at : 18.80 123.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 77.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 63.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 130.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.0 24.3 25.2 30.2 28.5 39.9 40.4 46.7 N N N N N U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 50.0 48.0 53.0 50.0 46.0 40.0 33.0 29.0 N N N N N N U U Potential [kt] 102.4 100.5 117.3 124.3 125.0 125.0 125.0 124.3 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 3.0 18.0 4.0 14.0 5.0 0.0 3.0 53.0 U U U U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 63.0 66.0 68.0 67.0 72.0 71.0 62.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -3.0 -2.0 -7.0 -12.0 -24.0 -23.0 -27.0 N N N F F VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 5.8% 6.9% 6.3% 25kt / 24h 11.8% 29.2% 20.5% 30kt / 24h 8.2% 16.7% 12.4% 35kt / 24h 8.2% 16.2% 12.2% 40kt / 24h 0.8% 15.2% 8.0% 45kt / 36h 7.3% 35.9% 21.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 18.5% 9.2% 55kt / 48h 5.6% 9.2% 7.4% 70kt / 48h 1.3% 8.3% 4.8% 65kt / 72h 0.7% 9.3% 5.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.94 WP232022 221015 12UTC Storm Located at : 18.80 123.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 130.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.0 24.3 25.2 30.2 28.5 39.9 40.4 46.7 N N N N N F F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 63.0 66.0 68.0 67.0 72.0 71.0 62.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -3.0 -2.0 -7.0 -12.0 -24.0 -23.0 -27.0 N N N U U VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%