Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232022 221015 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20    122.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     89.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     81.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  22.4  25.0  23.4  25.0  32.9  35.6  36.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  47.0  49.0  48.0  40.0  35.0  30.0  26.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.1 114.6 119.3 119.3 120.0 120.0 119.3 114.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0 -24.0  10.0  10.0  12.0  11.0  21.0  27.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  69.0  69.0  71.0  70.0  70.0  65.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   0.0   2.0   6.0   1.0  -5.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.9%       12.9%       11.9%
 25kt / 24h       21.1%       46.5%       33.8%
 30kt / 24h       18.3%       35.0%       26.6%
 35kt / 24h       18.3%       35.0%       26.6%
 40kt / 24h        2.1%       32.4%       17.3%
 45kt / 36h       13.8%       47.7%       30.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       29.4%       14.7%
 55kt / 48h        9.7%       17.8%       13.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.3%       10.3%        5.8%
 65kt / 72h        1.1%        9.7%        5.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.26

 WP232022 221015 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20    122.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  22.4  25.0  23.4  25.0  32.9  35.6  36.7  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  69.0  69.0  71.0  70.0  70.0  65.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   0.0   2.0   6.0   1.0  -5.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%