Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232022 221016 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    121.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     91.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     74.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    137.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.1  27.1  25.8  25.5  27.2  29.9  40.3  32.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  47.0  48.0  44.0  37.0  33.0  30.0  21.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        109.6 114.3 115.0 114.3 115.0 115.0 112.0 105.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -14.0  -4.0   4.0  15.0  21.0  17.0  27.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  68.0  68.0  70.0  68.0  67.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  10.0   7.0   4.0  29.0  24.0  12.0  13.0  N  U  N  N VU VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.6%       12.2%       11.9%
 25kt / 24h       20.8%       42.9%       31.8%
 30kt / 24h       20.8%       33.0%       26.9%
 35kt / 24h       20.8%       33.0%       26.9%
 40kt / 24h        2.0%       30.4%       16.2%
 45kt / 36h       11.7%       38.3%       25.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       20.8%       10.4%
 55kt / 48h        6.7%       15.1%       10.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        5.8%        3.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.4%        4.7%        2.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.30

 WP232022 221016 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    121.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    137.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.1  27.1  25.8  25.5  27.2  29.9  40.3  32.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  68.0  68.0  70.0  68.0  67.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  10.0   7.0   4.0  29.0  24.0  12.0  13.0  N  F  N  N VF VF  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%