Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232022 221016 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.50    119.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.5  25.8  25.6  27.3  29.2  32.0  35.9  32.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  47.0  44.0  42.0  28.0  25.0  18.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  89.6  80.7  59.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0   3.0  33.0  41.0  23.0  17.0  23.0  57.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  61.0  61.0  59.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0  -2.0   4.0   8.0   7.0   3.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       61.5%       33.6%       47.6%
 25kt / 24h       62.0%       60.2%       61.1%
 30kt / 24h       62.0%       57.4%       59.7%
 35kt / 24h       62.0%       57.4%       59.7%
 40kt / 24h       29.6%       56.1%       42.8%
 45kt / 36h       27.0%       33.0%       30.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       17.0%        8.5%
 55kt / 48h        4.5%       12.9%        8.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        3.9%        2.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.48

 WP232022 221016 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.50    119.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.5  25.8  25.6  27.3  29.2  32.0  35.9  32.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  61.0  61.0  59.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0  -2.0   4.0   8.0   7.0   3.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%