Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232022 221016 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80    118.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  26.1  25.8  32.1  32.0  37.1  32.9  30.9  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  38.0  35.0  29.0  27.0  21.0   3.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         89.3  89.3  89.3  90.0  84.6  75.7  54.4  15.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  14.0  13.0  23.0  19.0  21.0  55.0  26.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  66.0  63.0  63.0  59.0  58.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   3.0   6.0  12.0   5.0  -4.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       62.6%       25.4%       44.0%
 25kt / 24h       54.3%       44.1%       49.2%
 30kt / 24h       54.3%       39.4%       46.8%
 35kt / 24h       54.3%       39.4%       46.8%
 40kt / 24h       28.5%       39.4%       33.9%
 45kt / 36h       19.0%       15.3%       17.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.9%        3.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        4.1%        2.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.42

 WP232022 221016 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80    118.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  26.1  25.8  32.1  32.0  37.1  32.9  30.9  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  66.0  63.0  63.0  59.0  58.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   3.0   6.0  12.0   5.0  -4.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%