Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232022 221017 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80    116.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     61.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.8  29.4  28.6  30.4  38.0  31.8  33.9  27.6  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  24.0  22.0  23.0  17.0  12.0  14.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         82.0  79.6  77.3  75.1  68.6  64.4  66.5  58.5  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  32.0  53.0  28.0  25.0   9.0  28.0  34.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  62.0  65.0  63.0  63.0  65.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  17.0  22.0   9.0  17.0  25.0  26.0  17.0  U  U VU  U  U VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       18.6%       11.5%       15.0%
 25kt / 24h       17.4%       23.4%       20.4%
 30kt / 24h       15.3%       19.0%       17.2%
 35kt / 24h       15.3%       19.0%       17.2%
 40kt / 24h        6.9%       17.7%       12.3%
 45kt / 36h        7.3%        5.3%        6.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        1.3%        0.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.18

 WP232022 221017 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80    116.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.8  29.4  28.6  30.4  38.0  31.8  33.9  27.6  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  62.0  65.0  63.0  63.0  65.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  17.0  22.0   9.0  17.0  25.0  26.0  17.0  F  F VF  F  F VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%