Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232022 221017 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20    116.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     91.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     73.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.2  31.2  30.9  35.1  35.1  32.7  27.5  29.9  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  26.0  26.0  22.0  16.0  12.0  11.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         72.3  72.3  72.3  70.1  63.6  59.4  55.5  51.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  57.0  30.0  11.0  21.0  -9.0  31.0  22.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  68.0  67.0  62.0  65.0  64.0  67.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  28.0  35.0  29.0  20.0  28.0  30.0  33.0  26.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       26.1%       11.2%       18.7%
 25kt / 24h       18.0%       20.4%       19.2%
 30kt / 24h       15.3%       15.9%       15.6%
 35kt / 24h       15.3%       15.9%       15.6%
 40kt / 24h        8.4%       14.3%       11.4%
 45kt / 36h       10.0%        6.0%        8.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.10

 WP232022 221017 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20    116.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.2  31.2  30.9  35.1  35.1  32.7  27.5  29.9  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  68.0  67.0  62.0  65.0  64.0  67.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  28.0  35.0  29.0  20.0  28.0  30.0  33.0  26.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h       14.6%        2.1%        8.3%