Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232022 221017 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.70    114.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     62.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.5  36.1  36.1  33.1  30.9  28.5  28.3  28.1  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  24.0  19.0  16.0  14.0  14.0  11.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.1  65.1  62.9  58.6  58.6  56.5  50.5  46.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  39.0  26.0  30.0  12.0  -6.0  12.0  12.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  67.0  65.0  65.0  68.0  71.0  68.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  26.0  27.0  18.0  14.0  27.0  26.0  19.0  12.0 VU VU VU  U VU VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.7%        1.7%        3.2%
 25kt / 24h        1.8%        3.5%        2.6%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        1.8%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        1.8%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        1.6%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        2.5%        1.1%        1.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.94

 WP232022 221017 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.70    114.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.5  36.1  36.1  33.1  30.9  28.5  28.3  28.1  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  67.0  65.0  65.0  68.0  71.0  68.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  26.0  27.0  18.0  14.0  27.0  26.0  19.0  12.0 VF VF VF  F VF VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h       25.2%        6.7%       16.0%