Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232022 221019 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    110.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.5  29.5  26.6  27.6  28.3  26.2  26.2  26.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   9.0  11.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         88.5  88.5  92.4  79.4  62.2  34.1  34.1  34.1  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -17.0   2.0   4.0   5.0   0.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  69.0  69.0  67.0  68.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  27.0  30.0  24.0  21.0  14.0   5.0   5.0   5.0 VU VU VU VU  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.16

 WP232022 221019 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    110.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.