Rapid Intensification Guidance WP232022 221020 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.50 107.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.90 F TC SIZE [%] 74.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.3 23.2 23.9 29.2 31.9 32.6 30.4 30.8 N N N N U U N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 75.5 51.2 43.4 38.7 35.5 36.8 41.7 45.2 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 39.0 29.0 14.0 17.0 9.0 0.0 -25.0 1.0 N N U U U U VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 66.0 65.0 67.0 69.0 70.0 74.0 75.0 N N N N N N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 11.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 2.0 3.0 -1.0 -1.0 U N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 22.90 WP232022 221020 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.50 107.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.