Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP242022 221018 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.70    161.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.7  22.4  40.1  56.7  74.1  66.4  44.0  29.1  N  N  U VU VU VU VU  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.4  74.2  69.3  59.7  35.1  29.2  27.7  27.3  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  34.0  -3.0  18.0 -26.0 -61.0  82.0  91.0  U  N  U  U VU VU  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  49.0  49.0  50.0  51.0  56.0  50.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0 -22.0 -63.0 -23.0 -93.0 -57.0   0.0  25.0  F VF VF VF VF VF  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.72

 WP242022 221018 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.70    161.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.