Rapid Intensification Guidance WP242022 221019 00UTC Storm Located at : 33.50 162.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 5.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.20 F TC SIZE [%] 94.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.1 35.1 35.0 53.4 38.6 24.7 37.2 37.2 N U U VU U N U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 78.0 72.9 63.8 57.8 45.4 42.1 43.4 43.4 N U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 51.0 13.0 48.0 36.0 -26.0 -7.0 -26.0 -26.0 N U N N VU U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 45.0 45.0 46.0 43.0 48.0 42.0 28.0 28.0 VU VU VU VU U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -33.0 -43.0 -22.0 -30.0 -5.0 -21.0 -55.0 -55.0 VF VF VF VF F VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.60 WP242022 221019 00UTC Storm Located at : 33.50 162.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.