Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP242022 221019 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.20    164.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.3  51.4  55.4  80.4  95.6  95.1  95.1  95.1  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         69.3  59.7  54.1  39.0  19.5  14.4  14.4  14.4  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0  35.0  39.0 -12.0 -45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  U  N  N  U VU  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  46.0  48.0  51.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -47.0 -50.0 -37.0 -61.0 -39.0  16.0  16.0  16.0 VF VF VF VF VF  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 23.48

 WP242022 221019 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.20    164.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.