Rapid Intensification Guidance WP242022 221019 12UTC Storm Located at : 37.00 167.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 1.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.40 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 60.6 66.4 81.7 90.7 99.2 128.2 138.4 134.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 54.7 45.8 32.3 21.3 11.5 8.1 6.9 6.6 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 46.0 51.0 12.0 -12.0 -25.0 56.0 79.0 53.0 N N U U VU N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 51.0 50.0 51.0 48.0 49.0 54.0 50.0 VU U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -34.0 -12.0 -10.0 -82.0 -31.0 182.0 82.0 -73.0 VF F F VF VF VU VU VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 21.92 WP242022 221019 12UTC Storm Located at : 37.00 167.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.