Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252022 221019 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80    130.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  16.7  19.2  22.5  26.0  24.7  23.6  20.2  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   62.0  67.0  64.0  79.0  89.0  60.0  45.0  41.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 132.3 130.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0  16.0   3.0  -5.0   5.0   1.0  18.0  -2.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  67.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  64.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   4.0   1.0   2.0   3.0   1.0   0.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        3.3%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h        6.9%       26.6%       16.8%
 30kt / 24h        4.1%       12.0%        8.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.9%       10.6%        6.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%       10.6%        5.6%
 45kt / 36h        8.6%       37.2%       22.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       16.4%        8.2%
 55kt / 48h       18.3%       17.5%       17.9%
 70kt / 48h       11.3%       13.2%       12.3%
 65kt / 72h       25.5%       30.0%       27.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.86

 WP252022 221019 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80    130.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  16.7  19.2  22.5  26.0  24.7  23.6  20.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  67.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  64.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   4.0   1.0   2.0   3.0   1.0   0.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%