Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252022 221020 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.00    129.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.7  17.7  15.6  13.7  12.3  14.7  20.6  25.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  56.0  60.0  66.0  54.0  45.0  26.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 130.1 117.4 101.0  80.4  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0   5.0   7.0  12.0  22.0   5.0  11.0 -12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  65.0  64.0  62.0  64.0  65.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   3.0   5.0   5.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        4.5%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h        9.9%       38.1%       24.0%
 30kt / 24h        5.7%       20.3%       13.0%
 35kt / 24h        2.8%       18.4%       10.6%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%       18.4%        9.7%
 45kt / 36h       14.6%       59.0%       36.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       36.7%       18.4%
 55kt / 48h       32.8%       29.8%       31.3%
 70kt / 48h       22.3%       29.3%       25.8%
 65kt / 72h       17.8%       25.3%       21.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.68

 WP252022 221020 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.00    129.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.7  17.7  15.6  13.7  12.3  14.7  20.6  25.8  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  65.0  64.0  62.0  64.0  65.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   3.0   5.0   5.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%