Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252022 221020 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.20    128.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  14.9  14.0  13.2  18.9  23.0  26.6  20.4  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0  53.0  57.0  52.0  43.0  33.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        134.6 132.3 134.6 127.9 109.8 102.7  52.6  83.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0   7.0  12.0  19.0  17.0  14.0  10.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  61.0  63.0  64.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   5.0   4.0   0.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.9%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        3.2%       18.7%       11.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.5%        8.4%        4.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        6.9%        3.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        6.9%        3.5%
 45kt / 36h        3.1%       26.2%       14.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       11.0%        5.5%
 55kt / 48h       10.8%       10.8%       10.8%
 70kt / 48h       10.8%        6.7%        8.8%
 65kt / 72h        4.4%        4.6%        4.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.20

 WP252022 221020 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.20    128.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  14.9  14.0  13.2  18.9  23.0  26.6  20.4  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  61.0  63.0  64.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   5.0   4.0   0.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%