Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252022 221020 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.50    126.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.0  17.6  17.7  16.8  16.2  17.3  15.2  18.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   64.0  62.0  59.0  46.0  31.0  28.0  21.0  21.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 129.6 122.9 118.6 120.7 122.9 118.6  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  12.0   2.0  -3.0  -4.0  -3.0  -1.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  63.0  65.0  61.0  62.0  58.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  -7.0 -10.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.2%        4.9%        3.6%
 25kt / 24h        8.2%       29.5%       18.8%
 30kt / 24h        5.2%       15.0%       10.1%
 35kt / 24h        2.7%       13.5%        8.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%       13.5%        7.2%
 45kt / 36h        8.2%       38.8%       23.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       19.6%        9.8%
 55kt / 48h       16.5%       10.6%       13.6%
 70kt / 48h       10.6%       15.1%       12.9%
 65kt / 72h       16.4%       29.0%       22.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.30

 WP252022 221020 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.50    126.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.0  17.6  17.7  16.8  16.2  17.3  15.2  18.0  U  N  N  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  63.0  65.0  61.0  62.0  58.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  -7.0 -10.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%