Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252022 221021 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30    122.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.0  12.7  12.8  11.9  14.8  13.3  16.6  18.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  34.0  31.0  31.0  22.0  17.0   7.0   5.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        118.6 114.4 116.5 118.6 114.4 114.4 104.8 101.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -15.0   1.0   4.0  19.0   2.0  -5.0 -15.0 -33.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  63.0  64.0  64.0  65.0  65.0  67.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0  -4.0  -9.0 -12.0  -9.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        2.6%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        2.9%       18.2%       10.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.3%        9.4%        5.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        7.8%        4.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        7.7%        3.9%
 45kt / 36h        3.2%       32.1%       17.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       16.6%        8.3%
 55kt / 48h       10.9%        6.5%        8.7%
 70kt / 48h        6.5%       12.0%        9.3%
 65kt / 72h        4.0%       16.3%       10.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.74

 WP252022 221021 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30    122.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.0  12.7  12.8  11.9  14.8  13.3  16.6  18.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  63.0  64.0  64.0  65.0  65.0  67.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0  -4.0  -9.0 -12.0  -9.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%