Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252022 221021 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40    121.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.5  11.8  11.6  11.8  14.2  16.0  16.3  15.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  31.0  31.0  31.0  14.0  15.0   5.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        114.4 116.5 118.6 118.6 114.4 110.5  99.4  89.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0   1.0  -2.0  -6.0 -21.0 -17.0 -28.0 -53.0  U  U  U  U VU  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  64.0  62.0  65.0  64.0  64.0  66.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -1.0   0.0  -4.0  -7.0   0.0  -3.0  -6.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        7.6%        4.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        3.1%        1.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.6%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.6%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        1.6%       13.1%        7.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.8%        2.4%
 55kt / 48h        5.6%        5.6%        5.6%
 70kt / 48h        5.6%        4.0%        4.8%
 65kt / 72h        2.0%        5.7%        3.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.64

 WP252022 221021 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40    121.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.5  11.8  11.6  11.8  14.2  16.0  16.3  15.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  64.0  62.0  65.0  64.0  64.0  66.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -1.0   0.0  -4.0  -7.0   0.0  -3.0  -6.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%