Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252022 221021 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20    119.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.3  11.5  13.0  18.1  16.2  20.2  21.9  26.5  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  21.0  17.0   9.0  10.0   8.0   0.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.5 111.6 108.0 104.4 106.2 104.4  96.1 108.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -13.0   8.0   3.0  -6.0  -5.0 -21.0 -43.0 -40.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  63.0  65.0  66.0  65.0  63.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   5.0   5.0  12.0   0.0   3.0  -6.0  -8.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        2.9%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.0%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        6.5%        3.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        1.8%        1.8%        1.8%
 70kt / 48h        1.8%        1.3%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.08

 WP252022 221021 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20    119.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.