Rapid Intensification Guidance WP252022 221022 12UTC Storm Located at : 20.20 119.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 1.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.10 F TC SIZE [%] 84.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.6 16.1 14.5 15.0 22.2 23.1 26.7 26.7 F F F F N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 28.0 16.0 12.0 16.0 5.0 12.0 7.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 113.5 109.8 113.5 115.5 102.7 115.5 104.4 104.4 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -4.0 -32.0 -26.0 -32.0 -23.0 -34.0 -1.0 -1.0 U VU VU VU VU VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 69.0 70.0 68.0 69.0 68.0 71.0 71.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 10.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 -9.0 -2.0 -2.0 U N N N N F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.3% 2.3% 1.3% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 4.7% 2.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.2% 0.6% 55kt / 48h 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 70kt / 48h 0.3% 0.9% 0.6% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 1.6% 0.8% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.20 WP252022 221022 12UTC Storm Located at : 20.20 119.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.