Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252022 221023 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    116.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.7  16.7  15.3  16.4  19.7  31.2  36.8  36.8  F  F  F  F  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0  16.0  11.0   7.0  10.0  12.0  17.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        104.8 110.5 106.6 103.0 106.6 104.8 104.8 104.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -24.0 -19.0 -28.0 -27.0 -60.0 -15.0   9.0   9.0 VU  U VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  72.0  74.0  71.0  77.0  73.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -5.0  -8.0  -5.0  -7.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.8%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.5%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        7.7%        4.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.5%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        1.3%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.04

 WP252022 221023 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    116.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.