Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252022 221023 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80    114.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  20.3  19.6  20.3  27.7  34.5  34.5  34.5  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  13.0  14.0  24.0  30.0  26.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.4 118.5 120.5 126.5 132.9 126.5 126.5 126.5  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -29.0 -45.0 -34.0 -18.0 -37.0  29.0  29.0  29.0 VU VU VU  U VU  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  74.0  74.0  77.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.2%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.40

 WP252022 221023 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80    114.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.