Rapid Intensification Guidance WP262022 221027 06UTC Storm Located at : 12.20 130.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 26.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 15.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.10 F TC SIZE [%] 119.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.7 27.7 30.6 27.8 26.5 30.6 30.7 39.3 U N U N N U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 107.0 108.0 110.0 110.0 91.0 71.0 0.0 0.0 F F F F F N U U Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 65.9 46.9 F F F F F F U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 112.0 110.0 100.0 99.0 116.0 138.0 107.0 64.0 F F F F F VF F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 80.0 81.0 81.0 79.0 79.0 77.0 78.0 76.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 20.0 32.0 25.0 25.0 10.0 21.0 23.0 N VU VU VU VU U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 3.3% 2.7% 3.0% 25kt / 24h 23.4% 29.5% 26.5% 30kt / 24h 10.6% 10.9% 10.8% 35kt / 24h 3.5% 9.7% 6.6% 40kt / 24h 1.9% 9.7% 5.8% 45kt / 36h 24.0% 41.2% 32.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 15.7% 7.9% 55kt / 48h 40.3% 22.5% 31.4% 70kt / 48h 24.8% 13.8% 19.3% 65kt / 72h 33.4% 7.6% 20.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.52 WP262022 221027 06UTC Storm Located at : 12.20 130.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 119.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.7 27.7 30.6 27.8 26.5 30.6 30.7 39.3 F N N N N N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 80.0 81.0 81.0 79.0 79.0 77.0 78.0 76.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 20.0 32.0 25.0 25.0 10.0 21.0 23.0 N VF VF VF VF F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%