Rapid Intensification Guidance WP262022 221027 12UTC Storm Located at : 12.10 130.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 33.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 14.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.90 F TC SIZE [%] 134.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.5 32.3 29.3 22.8 21.5 21.2 25.7 35.6 U U N N N N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 108.0 111.0 112.0 108.0 92.0 66.0 0.0 0.0 F F F F F N U U Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 132.0 44.7 52.4 F F F F F F U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 100.0 115.0 134.0 143.0 103.0 126.0 79.0 49.0 F F VF VF F F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 85.0 86.0 86.0 86.0 80.0 75.0 67.0 56.0 F F F F F F N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 14.0 18.0 27.0 22.0 18.0 17.0 13.0 30.0 U VU VU VU VU U U VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.4% 1.6% 1.5% 25kt / 24h 19.9% 25.3% 22.6% 30kt / 24h 7.5% 9.2% 8.3% 35kt / 24h 2.7% 7.9% 5.3% 40kt / 24h 0.7% 7.9% 4.3% 45kt / 36h 18.7% 35.0% 26.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 12.4% 6.2% 55kt / 48h 43.1% 25.3% 34.2% 70kt / 48h 24.8% 14.1% 19.4% 65kt / 72h 37.9% 8.2% 23.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.54 WP262022 221027 12UTC Storm Located at : 12.10 130.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 134.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.5 32.3 29.3 22.8 21.5 21.2 25.7 35.6 N N N N N N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 85.0 86.0 86.0 86.0 80.0 75.0 67.0 56.0 U U U U U U N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 14.0 18.0 27.0 22.0 18.0 17.0 13.0 30.0 F VF VF VF VF F F VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%