Rapid Intensification Guidance WP262022 221027 18UTC Storm Located at : 12.10 129.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 65.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 51.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.9 28.3 22.6 23.4 23.6 32.2 33.7 40.6 N N N N N U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 107.0 109.0 97.0 79.0 57.0 40.0 64.0 64.0 F F F N N N N N Potential [kt] 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 93.0 122.0 125.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 126.0 124.0 136.0 134.0 99.0 111.0 79.0 53.0 F F VF VF F F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 81.0 80.0 82.0 83.0 83.0 79.0 78.0 74.0 F F F F F F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 13.0 16.0 20.0 22.0 8.0 24.0 41.0 26.0 U U VU VU U VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 10.9% 9.4% 10.1% 25kt / 24h 54.4% 60.3% 57.3% 30kt / 24h 27.4% 38.5% 32.9% 35kt / 24h 15.6% 38.2% 26.9% 40kt / 24h 8.8% 37.5% 23.2% 45kt / 36h 39.5% 63.4% 51.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 38.7% 19.3% 55kt / 48h 41.6% 28.7% 35.2% 70kt / 48h 24.8% 18.5% 21.7% 65kt / 72h 34.1% 15.7% 24.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.36 WP262022 221027 18UTC Storm Located at : 12.10 129.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.9 28.3 22.6 23.4 23.6 32.2 33.7 40.6 N N N N N N F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 81.0 80.0 82.0 83.0 83.0 79.0 78.0 74.0 U U U U U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 13.0 16.0 20.0 22.0 8.0 24.0 41.0 26.0 F F VF VF F VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%