Rapid Intensification Guidance WP262022 221028 06UTC Storm Located at : 12.50 126.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 43.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 31.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 127.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.8 18.6 28.4 27.8 21.1 29.7 29.6 27.8 F N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 84.0 66.0 59.0 51.0 34.0 60.0 61.0 54.0 N N N N U N N N Potential [kt] 120.0 120.0 120.0 110.1 76.1 119.3 120.0 119.3 N N N N U N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 110.0 103.0 105.0 82.0 86.0 102.0 69.0 43.0 F F F N F F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 89.0 86.0 86.0 87.0 79.0 68.0 64.0 55.0 VF F F VF F N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -7.0 -7.0 -6.0 -9.0 -5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 F F F F F N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 8.5% 7.7% 8.1% 25kt / 24h 28.2% 36.7% 32.4% 30kt / 24h 14.4% 19.3% 16.8% 35kt / 24h 7.9% 19.0% 13.4% 40kt / 24h 3.4% 19.0% 11.2% 45kt / 36h 12.8% 21.2% 17.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 7.5% 3.8% 55kt / 48h 18.6% 8.4% 13.5% 70kt / 48h 11.3% 6.4% 8.8% 65kt / 72h 25.6% 14.5% 20.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.72 WP262022 221028 06UTC Storm Located at : 12.50 126.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 127.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.8 18.6 28.4 27.8 21.1 29.7 29.6 27.8 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 89.0 86.0 86.0 87.0 79.0 68.0 64.0 55.0 VU U U VU U N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -7.0 -7.0 -6.0 -9.0 -5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%