Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262022 221029 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.60    122.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     94.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    147.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.2  20.5  23.1  20.8  22.4  22.6  27.9  25.7  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  78.0  77.0  74.0  62.0  47.0  33.0  18.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         89.4 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 104.6  93.6  89.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   144.0 135.0 135.0 133.0 120.0 105.0  70.0  68.0 VF VF VF VF  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  79.0  78.0  77.0  70.0  64.0  57.0  48.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0   6.0   5.0   0.0   3.0   3.0   1.0   5.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       26.3%       23.2%       24.7%
 25kt / 24h       73.5%       76.5%       75.0%
 30kt / 24h       47.6%       70.1%       58.9%
 35kt / 24h       43.8%       70.1%       57.0%
 40kt / 24h       19.6%       66.9%       43.2%
 45kt / 36h       54.1%       72.5%       63.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       54.5%       27.2%
 55kt / 48h       51.0%       55.3%       53.2%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       39.2%       32.0%
 65kt / 72h       41.7%       31.9%       36.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.84

 WP262022 221029 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.60    122.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    147.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.2  20.5  23.1  20.8  22.4  22.6  27.9  25.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  79.0  78.0  77.0  70.0  64.0  57.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0   6.0   5.0   0.0   3.0   3.0   1.0   5.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%