Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262022 221029 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90    121.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     76.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.7  21.5  22.5  23.8  33.8  35.4  45.0  49.7  F  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  67.0  71.0  67.0  50.0  37.0  27.0  16.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         81.6 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  97.9  87.4  79.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  85.0 112.0 118.0  71.0  71.0  35.0 -11.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  79.0  76.0  77.0  73.0  63.0  60.0  59.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0  10.0  11.0   3.0  16.0   4.0  21.0  32.0  N  U  U  N  U  N VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.5%        5.4%        5.0%
 25kt / 24h       26.7%       36.9%       31.8%
 30kt / 24h       12.3%       25.3%       18.8%
 35kt / 24h        9.5%       25.3%       17.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.9%       23.0%       12.5%
 45kt / 36h       14.7%       24.8%       19.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       10.0%        5.0%
 55kt / 48h       13.1%        9.9%       11.5%
 70kt / 48h        3.5%        3.2%        3.4%
 65kt / 72h        1.7%        1.3%        1.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.20

 WP262022 221029 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90    121.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.7  21.5  22.5  23.8  33.8  35.4  45.0  49.7  N  N  N  N  F  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  79.0  76.0  77.0  73.0  63.0  60.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0  10.0  11.0   3.0  16.0   4.0  21.0  32.0  N  F  F  N  F  N VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%