Rapid Intensification Guidance WP262022 221029 18UTC Storm Located at : 15.80 120.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 86.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 68.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 140.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.4 26.7 30.8 33.7 39.3 45.2 49.2 49.0 N N U U U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 59.0 68.0 59.0 58.0 42.0 29.0 21.0 14.0 N N N N N U U U Potential [kt] 114.6 120.0 120.0 120.0 107.9 95.5 89.8 86.2 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 130.0 113.0 91.0 79.0 47.0 25.0 -12.0 17.0 F F F N N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 79.0 79.0 78.0 78.0 69.0 67.0 67.0 69.0 F F F F N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 2.0 5.0 3.0 -4.0 10.0 18.0 46.0 N N N N F U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 1.1% 0.7% 25kt / 24h 5.2% 10.9% 8.1% 30kt / 24h 0.8% 4.9% 2.9% 35kt / 24h 0.4% 4.3% 2.4% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 3.9% 2.0% 45kt / 36h 0.7% 4.9% 2.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.2% 0.6% 55kt / 48h 0.5% 1.3% 0.9% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.18 WP262022 221029 18UTC Storm Located at : 15.80 120.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 140.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.4 26.7 30.8 33.7 39.3 45.2 49.2 49.0 N N N F F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 79.0 79.0 78.0 78.0 69.0 67.0 67.0 69.0 U U U U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 2.0 5.0 3.0 -4.0 10.0 18.0 46.0 N N N N U F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%