Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262022 221030 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30    118.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.0  27.3  28.7  33.2  44.0  44.1  50.4  31.2  N  N  N  U VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  55.0  44.0  41.0  19.0   8.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 119.3 112.3  93.5  86.2  79.3  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    85.0  70.0  60.0  44.0  43.0  44.0  16.0  -6.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  72.0  68.0  63.0  53.0  50.0  50.0  43.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   1.0   9.0  14.0  16.0  48.0  37.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        1.5%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        4.2%       10.2%        7.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        4.2%        2.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        3.7%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        3.7%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        2.9%        1.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.62

 WP262022 221030 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30    118.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.0  27.3  28.7  33.2  44.0  44.1  50.4  31.2  N  N  N  F VF VF VF  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  72.0  68.0  63.0  53.0  50.0  50.0  43.0  U  N  N  N  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   1.0   9.0  14.0  16.0  48.0  37.0  N  N  N  F  F  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%