Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262022 221030 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.40    117.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    142.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.8  27.1  27.3  30.1  32.3  32.4  23.7  23.1  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  52.0  44.0  35.0  18.0   5.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 119.3 112.3 105.7  91.6  81.0  74.6  68.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    90.0  44.0  47.0  57.0  38.0  -1.0  14.0  28.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  63.0  59.0  54.0  48.0  44.0  44.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   2.0  -3.0   4.0   6.0   9.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.4%        3.9%        3.2%
 25kt / 24h       11.1%       21.7%       16.4%
 30kt / 24h        4.2%       11.1%        7.7%
 35kt / 24h        3.5%       10.8%        7.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%       10.1%        5.2%
 45kt / 36h        1.9%       10.3%        6.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.1%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        1.9%        1.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.9%        1.3%        1.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.36

 WP262022 221030 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.40    117.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    142.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.8  27.1  27.3  30.1  32.3  32.4  23.7  23.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  63.0  59.0  54.0  48.0  44.0  44.0  N  N  N  F  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   2.0  -3.0   4.0   6.0   9.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%