Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262022 221030 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00    117.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     57.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.6  30.5  29.0  34.6  40.2  41.8  32.3  24.4  N  N  N  U  U VU  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   62.0  55.0  43.0  39.0  35.0  20.0   7.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 117.0 112.3  99.4  88.0  81.0  76.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    70.0  76.0  39.0  16.0  -7.0   3.0  11.0  11.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  71.0  68.0  64.0  59.0  54.0  53.0  53.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   5.0  -6.0   5.0  27.0  40.0  34.0  30.0  N  N  F  N VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        2.7%        2.4%
 25kt / 24h        6.9%       15.7%       11.3%
 30kt / 24h        2.8%        7.0%        4.9%
 35kt / 24h        2.4%        6.5%        4.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        6.3%        3.3%
 45kt / 36h        1.2%        6.3%        3.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        1.1%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.60

 WP262022 221030 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00    117.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.6  30.5  29.0  34.6  40.2  41.8  32.3  24.4  N  N  N  F  F VF  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  71.0  68.0  64.0  59.0  54.0  53.0  53.0  U  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   5.0  -6.0   5.0  27.0  40.0  34.0  30.0  N  N  U  N VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%