Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262022 221030 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30    117.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     76.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     67.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    146.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.2  36.6  35.6  38.7  39.9  31.4  26.7  23.5  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  39.0  31.0  21.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        117.0 107.9  99.4  89.8  77.7  70.0  63.0  61.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    64.0  20.0  -4.0 -27.0 -15.0  19.0  10.0  11.0  N  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  59.0  55.0  50.0  56.0  51.0  54.0  53.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  -3.0   2.0   2.0  10.0  18.0  30.0  16.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        1.7%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        5.3%        3.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        2.1%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        1.9%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.2%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.88

 WP262022 221030 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30    117.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    146.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.2  36.6  35.6  38.7  39.9  31.4  26.7  23.5  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  59.0  55.0  50.0  56.0  51.0  54.0  53.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  -3.0   2.0   2.0  10.0  18.0  30.0  16.0  N  N  N  N  F VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%